Population and Employment Forecast 

TRPC develops updated population and employment forecasts every three to five years.  These forecasts are used for transportation, sewer, water, land use, school, and other local governmental planning purposes.  They are also used by the private sector for business planning.  TRPC has been preparing these forecasts periodically since the late 1960s.  We are in the midst of another update now.

COUNTY-WIDE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECAST

On November 5th, 2004 the Thurston Regional Planning Council adopted the County-Wide Population and Employment Forecast.  The new forecast is lower than the 1999 forecast for 2005 and 2010, the same for 2015, and higher for 2020 and 2025.  In addition, the new forecast extends the projections to 2030.  The new forecast remains within the high-to-low range of the OFM Growth Management Projections for Thurston County.

SMALL AREA POPULATION AND DWELLING UNIT DISTRIBUTION

Given the forecast of future population county-wide, it must be decided where the growth will go, based on the adopted plans and policies of the local cities, towns, and the county.  County-wide figures are allocated to the neighborhood level using a large database of developable lands, development trends, and zoning densities.  Only then can planning for needed streets, utilities, school sites, park sites, and other public services and facilities take place. The overall approach is to base the modeling on a great many small assumptions, rather than a few giant leaps of faith.

Small area population allocations were approved by the Thurston Regional Planning Council on July 8, 2005.  These allocations were amended in October 2007.

JURISDICTION-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATIONS AND FORECAST

The final phase of TRPC's forecast update is the small area employment allocations and forecast.  The forecast was approved by TRPC in March, 2006.