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Transportation Modeling for Policy Makers
Explaining the Mystery of the Black Box
The travel demand forecasting model plays a critical role in transportation planning and investment.
Citizens, commissioners, and other policy makers view the transportation model as a "Black Box" --- like magic, the modeler inputs statistics, maps and other information into one side of this box and out comes travel forecasts on the other side.
These forecasts include the number of trips distributed on the regional network as well as travel demand by different modes, such as drive alone, share-ride, transit, walk and bike.
This downloadable handout will remove the mystery of the "Black Box" by explaining:
- What constitutes a model --- the basic components of a model?
- What are the applications, assumptions and limitations of a model?
- What steps are taken to forecast travel demand in a region?
- What are the modeling data inputs and outputs?
- How is the model calibrated and validated for use?
- What are some of the policy implications of the model?
- What are the roles of the model in regional transportation planning?
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