Explanation of Actions shown in the Wedge Analysis
Washington Renewable Portfolio Standard: The Washington State Renewable Portfolio Standard mandates that for the state’s largest utilities, including Puget Sound Energy,15% of the electricity grid must be met with new (non-hydroelectric power) renewable resources and all cost-effective conservation by 2020. The consultants modeled this 15% through 2050. Other sources of energy were based on Puget Sound Energy’s 2015 Integrated Resource Plan.
Washington Energy Code: By state law, new residential and commercial buildings must achieve a 70% reduction in annual net energy consumption below 2006 levels by 2031. This law is being implemented.
U.S. CAFE Standards: The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards put in place by the Obama Administration call for fuel economy to increase to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks by model year 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the U.S. vehicle fleet will achieve an average vehicle fuel efficiency of 27.3 miles per gallon in 2030 under current CAFE standards. President Trump has called for a roll back to these regulations, which will take approximately two years to work their way through the courts and the regulatory process. Hence, we modeled the current laws at this time.
Washington Energy Code Extension: The consultants extended the Washington state energy code to achieve net-zero energy for new buildings by 2050.
VMT Reduction: The consulting team modeled a vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reduction consistent with the targets in TRPC’s Regional Transportation Plan. They are:
Decrease annual per capita vehicle miles traveled in the Thurston Region to:
1990 levels by 2020
30 percent below 1990 by 2035
50 percent below 1990 by 2050
High Electric Vehicle Adoption: The consultants modeled three scenarios for electric vehicle (EV) infiltration. The High EV policy scenario is shown in the wedge diagram. The three scenarios are:
Current policy - Low: Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Outlook electric vehicle projections; 6% of light-duty vehicle VMT from electric vehicles in 2050
Medium EV policy case: 20% light-duty vehicle VMT from EVs in 2050
High EV policy case: 60% light-duty vehicle VMT from electric vehicles in 2050, based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook
Low Carbon Fuel Standard: The consultants modeled a 10% reduction in transport fuel carbon intensity over 10 years (2018 to 2028), which is what the Washington State Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) would likely have achieved had it been enacted. They assumed that the CFS can be met through a combination of reduction in gasoline and diesel emission intensity and increasing use of electric vehicles.
Under the High EV use policy scenario, the requirements of the CFS are completely met through electric vehicle use. Thus, there is no additional emissions reduction from the CFS shown in any High EV scenario.